Alex Nicholson vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record34-18-1
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'2"
81,0"Reach75"
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-12→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex NicholsonSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Nicholson60%
Sam Alvey 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Nicholson a 60% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sam Alvey's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1639), separated by just 9 points.
Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Alex Nicholson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.