Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record14-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach40.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamAurora MMA

What's at stake

Alex Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Carlo Pedersoli carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex OliveiraNow 1596
If they win+9→ 1605
If they lose-15→ 1581
Carlo PedersoliNow 1517
If they win+29→ 1546
If they lose-19→ 1498

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 2 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
4.17
51%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.12
47%
Strike defense
61%
2.35
Takedown avg.
2.91
38%
Takedown accuracy
44%
64%
Takedown defense
0%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraCarlo Pedersoli
15001550160016502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
5 (20%)
Submission
5 (36%)
5 (20%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Oliveira and Carlo Pedersoli within a point of even.

Alex Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1596 to 1517, a 79-point edge.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Carlo Pedersoli 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.