Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record14-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach40.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamAurora MMA· 1580 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Alex Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Carlo Pedersoli carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1604
If they lose-15→ 1580
If they win+29→ 1546
If they lose-19→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraCarlo Pedersoli
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlo Pedersoli52%
Alex Oliveira 48%Elo baseline: 39%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlo Pedersoli a 52% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Oliveira's way (39%).
Alex Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1595 to 1517, a 78-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Carlo Pedersoli 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.