Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-19-1Record14-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach40.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamAurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 14 rated
What's at stake
Alex Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carlo Pedersoli carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1581
If they lose-13→ 1557
If they win+26→ 1563
If they lose-22→ 1515
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraCarlo Pedersoli
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Oliveira59%
Carlo Pedersoli 41%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Oliveira a 59% favorite over Carlo Pedersoli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Alex Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1570 to 1537, a 33-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Carlo Pedersoli 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.