Alex Oliveira vs Carlos Condit
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
26-19-1Record32-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
76"Reach 75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Carlos Condit is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1587
If they lose-7→ 1563
If they win+7→ 1737
If they lose-17→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraCarlos Condit
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit70%
Alex Oliveira 30%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 70% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Carlos Condit holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1570, a 160-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Carlos Condit 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.