Alex Oliveira vs Christian Aguilera
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
76"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamTotal MMA Studios
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1607
If they lose-12→ 1583
If they win+16→ 1609
If they lose-16→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraChristian Aguilera
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Christian Aguilera66%
Alex Oliveira 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Christian Aguilera a 66% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Oliveira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1593), separated by just 2 points.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Christian Aguilera enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Christian Aguilera 79%.
Alex Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.