Alex Oliveira vs Curtis Millender
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record22-13-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
76"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamCSW
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1608
If they lose-12→ 1584
If they win+12→ 1608
If they lose-12→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraCurtis Millender
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Oliveira51%
Curtis Millender 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Oliveira a 51% favorite over Curtis Millender in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1596), separated by just 0 points.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Curtis Millender enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Curtis Millender 32%.
Alex Oliveira and Curtis Millender share 1 common opponent: Alexander Shlemenko.
Curtis Millender carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.