Alex Oliveira vs Danny Mitchell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record20-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'2"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamAVT Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1607
If they lose-12→ 1583
If they win+12→ 1606
If they lose-12→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1478 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraDanny Mitchell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Oliveira52%
Danny Mitchell 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Oliveira a 52% favorite over Danny Mitchell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1594), separated by just 1 points.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Danny Mitchell 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.