Alex Oliveira vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record36-17-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
76"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-8→ 1587
If they win+8→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone68%
Alex Oliveira 32%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 68% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1595, a 115-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Alex Oliveira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.