Alex Oliveira vs Gilbert Burns
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-19-1Record22-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"Reach 71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1588
If they lose-6→ 1564
If they win+6→ 1752
If they lose-18→ 1728
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1777 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gilbert Burns78%
Alex Oliveira 22%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 78% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1746 to 1570, a 176-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Burns 68%.
Alex Oliveira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.