Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Gilbert Burns

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record22-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"Reach 71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex OliveiraNow 1596
If they win+17→ 1613
If they lose-7→ 1589
Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+7→ 1751
If they lose-17→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1777 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
51%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
47%
Strike defense
52%
2.35
Takedown avg.
2.12
38%
Takedown accuracy
38%
64%
Takedown defense
54%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.46

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraGilbert Burns
160016501700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
6 (27%)
5 (20%)
Submission
9 (41%)
5 (20%)
Decision
7 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns79%
Alex Oliveira 21%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 79% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1596, a 148-point edge.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Burns 68%.

Alex Oliveira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.