Alex Oliveira vs Gunnar Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-19-1Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Gunnar Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1587
If they lose-7→ 1563
If they win+10→ 1720
If they lose-22→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gunnar Nelson71%
Alex Oliveira 29%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 71% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Gunnar Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1570, a 140-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.
Alex Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.