Alex Oliveira vs Gunnar Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamMjolnir
What's at stake
Gunnar Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-8→ 1588
If they win+11→ 1720
If they lose-21→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gunnar Nelson73%
Alex Oliveira 27%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 73% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Gunnar Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1596, a 113-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.
Alex Oliveira and Gunnar Nelson share 1 common opponent: Kevin Holland.
Alex Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.