Alex Oliveira vs James Moontasri
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record9-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"Reach71,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamBlack House
What's at stake
James Moontasri is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1609
If they lose-11→ 1585
If they win+15→ 1631
If they lose-17→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraJames Moontasri
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
James Moontasri63%
Alex Oliveira 37%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes James Moontasri a 63% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
James Moontasri holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1596, a 20-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
James Moontasri enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, James Moontasri 78%.
Alex Oliveira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.