Alex Oliveira vs Kevin Holland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record29-15-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
76"Reach81"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamPhalanx MMA Academy
What's at stake
Kevin Holland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1613
If they lose-7→ 1589
If they win+7→ 1743
If they lose-17→ 1719
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraKevin Holland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland84%
Alex Oliveira 16%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 84% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Kevin Holland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1596, a 140-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Holland 79%.
Kevin Holland carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.