Alex Oliveira vs KJ Noons
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record13-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach39.00
170 lbsWeight168 lbs
What's at stake
KJ Noons is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1608
If they lose-11→ 1584
If they win+14→ 1643
If they lose-18→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraKJ Noons
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
KJ Noons63%
Alex Oliveira 37%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes KJ Noons a 63% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
KJ Noons holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1595, a 34-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
KJ Noons enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, KJ Noons 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.