Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Max Griffin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record20-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamMMAGOLD Fight Team

What's at stake

Max Griffin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex OliveiraNow 1610
If they win+14→ 1624
If they lose-10→ 1600
Max GriffinNow 1669
If they win+10→ 1679
If they lose-14→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
3.76
51%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.70
47%
Strike defense
58%
2.35
Takedown avg.
1.28
38%
Takedown accuracy
41%
64%
Takedown defense
70%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.26

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraMax Griffin
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
9 (45%)
5 (20%)
Submission
2 (10%)
5 (20%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Max Griffin66%
Alex Oliveira 34%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Max Griffin a 66% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Max Griffin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1610, a 59-point edge.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Max Griffin 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.