Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Nah-Shon Burrell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record19-12-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamRenzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex OliveiraNow 1598
If they win+12→ 1610
If they lose-12→ 1586
Nah-Shon BurrellNow 1597
If they win+12→ 1609
If they lose-12→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
4.83
51%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
47%
Strike defense
56%
2.35
Takedown avg.
0
38%
Takedown accuracy
0%
64%
Takedown defense
52%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraNah-Shon Burrell
1600165020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
12 (63%)
5 (20%)
Submission
1 (5%)
5 (20%)
Decision
6 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Oliveira57%
Nah-Shon Burrell 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Oliveira a 57% favorite over Nah-Shon Burrell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1597), separated by just 1 points.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Nah-Shon Burrell 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.