Alex Oliveira vs Nicolas Dalby
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record24-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
Nicolas Dalby is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-8→ 1602
If they win+8→ 1737
If they lose-16→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraNicolas Dalby
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nicolas Dalby73%
Alex Oliveira 27%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Nicolas Dalby a 73% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Nicolas Dalby holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1610, a 119-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Nicolas Dalby 46%.
Alex Oliveira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.