Alex Oliveira vs Niko Price
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record16-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
76"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Niko Price is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1608
If they lose-11→ 1584
If they win+11→ 1635
If they lose-13→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraNiko Price
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Niko Price62%
Alex Oliveira 38%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Niko Price a 62% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Niko Price holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1624 to 1595, a 29-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Niko Price enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Niko Price 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.