Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Paulo Thiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record19-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex OliveiraNow 1595
If they win+12→ 1607
If they lose-12→ 1583
Paulo ThiagoNow 1595
If they win+12→ 1607
If they lose-12→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
51%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.99
47%
Strike defense
64%
2.35
Takedown avg.
1.42
38%
Takedown accuracy
32%
64%
Takedown defense
64%
0.57
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraPaulo Thiago
1600165020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
5 (20%)
Submission
10 (53%)
5 (20%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Oliveira and Paulo Thiago within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1595), separated by just 0 points.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.