Alex Oliveira vs Peter Sobotta
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-19-1Record17-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamPlanet Eater· 1647 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Peter Sobotta is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1585
If they lose-9→ 1561
If they win+9→ 1661
If they lose-15→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraPeter Sobotta
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Oliveira55%
Peter Sobotta 45%Elo baseline: 38%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Oliveira a 55% favorite over Peter Sobotta in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Peter Sobotta's way (38%).
Peter Sobotta holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1570, a 82-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Peter Sobotta enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Peter Sobotta 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.