Alex Oliveira vs Peter Sobotta
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record17-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamPlanet Eater
What's at stake
Peter Sobotta is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1610
If they lose-10→ 1586
If they win+10→ 1662
If they lose-14→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraPeter Sobotta
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Peter Sobotta70%
Alex Oliveira 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Peter Sobotta a 70% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Peter Sobotta holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1596, a 56-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Peter Sobotta enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Peter Sobotta 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.