Alex Oliveira vs Randy Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
76"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Randy Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1612
If they lose-7→ 1588
If they win+7→ 1749
If they lose-17→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraRandy Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown92%
Alex Oliveira 8%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 92% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Randy Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1742 to 1595, a 147-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Randy Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Randy Brown 65%.
Alex Oliveira and Randy Brown share 1 common opponent: Kevin Holland.
Randy Brown carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.