Alex Oliveira vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
76"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamKazakhstan Top Team
What's at stake
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1615
If they lose-5→ 1591
If they win+6→ 1854
If they lose-26→ 1822
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraShavkat Rakhmonov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shavkat Rakhmonov92%
Alex Oliveira 8%Elo baseline: 81%
The Combat Edge model makes Shavkat Rakhmonov a 92% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).
Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1596, a 252-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.