Alex Oliveira vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-19-1Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
76"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1590
If they lose-4→ 1566
If they win+5→ 1860
If they lose-27→ 1828
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraShavkat Rakhmonov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shavkat Rakhmonov85%
Alex Oliveira 15%Elo baseline: 84%
The Combat Edge model makes Shavkat Rakhmonov a 85% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (84%).
Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1855 to 1570, a 285-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.