Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Will Brooks

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record26-5-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
76"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Will Brooks is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex OliveiraNow 1596
If they win+17→ 1613
If they lose-7→ 1589
Will BrooksNow 1763
If they win+7→ 1770
If they lose-17→ 1746

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
4.26
51%
Strike accuracy
59%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.54
47%
Strike defense
56%
2.35
Takedown avg.
2.08
38%
Takedown accuracy
52%
64%
Takedown defense
83%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.26

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraWill Brooks
16001650170017502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
7 (27%)
5 (20%)
Submission
6 (23%)
5 (20%)
Decision
13 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Will Brooks78%
Alex Oliveira 22%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Will Brooks a 78% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Will Brooks holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1596, a 167-point edge.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Will Brooks enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Will Brooks 50%.

Alex Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.