Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Yancy Medeiros

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight165 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamTeam Hakuilua

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex OliveiraNow 1610
If they win+12→ 1622
If they lose-12→ 1598
Yancy MedeirosNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
51%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
47%
Strike defense
47%
2.35
Takedown avg.
0.33
38%
Takedown accuracy
17%
64%
Takedown defense
74%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraYancy Medeiros
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
5 (20%)
Submission
4 (25%)
5 (20%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Oliveira and Yancy Medeiros within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1610), separated by just 0 points.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.