Alex Oliveira vs Yancy Medeiros
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-19-1Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight165 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamTeam Hakuilua
What's at stake
Yancy Medeiros is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1583
If they lose-11→ 1559
If they win+14→ 1623
If they lose-18→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraYancy Medeiros
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Oliveira and Yancy Medeiros within a point of even.
Yancy Medeiros holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1609 to 1570, a 39-point edge.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.