Alex Soto vs Francisco Rivera
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-1Record16-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach68,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
KHK MMA Team· 1686 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamAll In MMA
What's at stake
Francisco Rivera is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alex Soto carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1551
If they lose-12→ 1519
If they win+9→ 1620
If they lose-15→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1559 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex SotoFrancisco Rivera
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Rivera56%
Alex Soto 44%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Rivera a 56% favorite over Alex Soto in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Francisco Rivera holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1611 to 1531, a 80-point edge.
Alex Soto finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Rivera 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.