Alex Soto vs Michael McDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-1Record19-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach70,0"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
KHK MMA TeamTeamLast Stand Fight Team
What's at stake
Michael McDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Alex Soto carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1555
If they lose-8→ 1523
If they win+8→ 1743
If they lose-24→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1559 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex SotoMichael McDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael McDonald84%
Alex Soto 16%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 84% favorite over Alex Soto in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Michael McDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1531, a 204-point edge.
Michael McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alex Soto finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Michael McDonald 84%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.