Alex White vs Estevan Payan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-6-0Record17-14-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
71,5"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight148 lbs
Team DestructionTeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
Alex White is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Estevan Payan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1610
If they lose-19→ 1578
If they win+14→ 1539
If they lose-10→ 1515
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex WhiteEstevan Payan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex White75%
Estevan Payan 25%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex White a 75% favorite over Estevan Payan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Alex White holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1597 to 1525, a 72-point edge.
Estevan Payan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex White finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Estevan Payan 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.