Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Zapata vs Billy Vaughan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record12-17-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Mario Roberto Jiu Jitsu AcademyTeamBuckeye MMA

What's at stake

Alex Zapata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Billy Vaughan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex ZapataNow 1471
If they win+20→ 1491
If they lose-28→ 1443
Billy VaughanNow 1419
If they win+14→ 1433
If they lose-10→ 1409

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alex ZapataBilly Vaughan
1400145015002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (75%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Zapata78%
Billy Vaughan 22%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Zapata a 78% favorite over Billy Vaughan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Alex Zapata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1419, a 52-point edge.

Billy Vaughan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Billy Vaughan 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.