Alex Zapata vs Craig Oxley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-0-0Record0-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
Alex Zapata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Craig Oxley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1492
If they lose-27→ 1444
If they win+27→ 1461
If they lose-21→ 1413
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Combat Edge model read
Alex Zapata81%
Craig Oxley 19%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Zapata a 81% favorite over Craig Oxley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Alex Zapata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1434, a 37-point edge.
Craig Oxley enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.