Alex Zapata vs Gary Quan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-0-0Record3-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Mario Roberto Jiu Jitsu AcademyTeamTeam Hamlett
What's at stake
Alex Zapata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Gary Quan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1491
If they lose-28→ 1443
If they win+28→ 1434
If they lose-20→ 1386
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1485 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex ZapataGary Quan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Zapata83%
Gary Quan 17%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Zapata a 83% favorite over Gary Quan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Alex Zapata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1406, a 65-point edge.
Gary Quan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gary Quan 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.