Alex Zapata vs Joe Pearson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-0-0Record45-31-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Mario Roberto Jiu Jitsu AcademyTeamTeam Extreme
What's at stake
Alex Zapata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Joe Pearson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1493
If they lose-26→ 1445
If they win+13→ 1449
If they lose-11→ 1425
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1496 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex ZapataJoe Pearson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Zapata82%
Joe Pearson 18%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Zapata a 82% favorite over Joe Pearson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Alex Zapata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1436, a 35-point edge.
Joe Pearson enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Joe Pearson 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.