Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Zapata vs John Donaldson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record0-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-Reach66,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Mario Roberto Jiu Jitsu AcademyTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex ZapataNow 1471
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
John DonaldsonNow 1483
If they win+15→ 1498
If they lose-17→ 1466

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.20
TBD
Strike accuracy
41%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.58
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.71
TBD
Takedown accuracy
29%
TBD
Takedown defense
82%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex ZapataJohn Donaldson
1450150020222023202420252026

Combat Edge model read

Alex Zapata60%
John Donaldson 40%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Zapata a 60% favorite over John Donaldson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Donaldson's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1471 vs 1483), separated by just 12 points.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.