Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Zapata vs Justin Robbins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record14-19-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'5"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Mario Roberto Jiu Jitsu AcademyTeamFinney's HIT Squad

What's at stake

Alex Zapata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Justin Robbins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex ZapataNow 1471
If they win+19→ 1490
If they lose-29→ 1442
Justin RobbinsNow 1402
If they win+14→ 1416
If they lose-10→ 1392

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex ZapataJustin Robbins
140014502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (21%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (29%)
0 (0%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Zapata83%
Justin Robbins 17%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Zapata a 83% favorite over Justin Robbins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Alex Zapata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1402, a 69-point edge.

Justin Robbins enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Justin Robbins 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.