Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Zapata vs Ning Guangyou

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record5-4-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'5"
-Reach64.00
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Mario Roberto Jiu Jitsu AcademyTeamTiger Muay Thai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex ZapataNow 1471
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
Ning GuangyouNow 1483
If they win+23→ 1506
If they lose-25→ 1458

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.66
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.91
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.09
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
63%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.27

Trajectory

Alex ZapataNing Guangyou
1500201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (60%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (20%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Zapata67%
Ning Guangyou 33%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Zapata a 67% favorite over Ning Guangyou in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ning Guangyou's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1471 vs 1483), separated by just 12 points.

Ning Guangyou enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ning Guangyou 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.