Alexander Chavez vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record14-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
66"Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Pitbull Martial Arts Center· 1672 avg Elo · 11 ratedTeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Steve Erceg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexander Chavez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1673
If they lose-15→ 1641
If they win+15→ 1703
If they lose-17→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander ChavezSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Erceg74%
Alexander Chavez 26%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Erceg a 74% favorite over Alexander Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Steve Erceg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1688 to 1656, a 32-point edge.
Alexander Chavez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Steve Erceg carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.