AdvertisementRemove ads — go Premium
Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Gustafsson vs Damian Piwowarczyk

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record12-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'6"
79"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight206 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamCzerwony Smok

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander GustafssonNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
Damian PiwowarczykNow 1673
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
41%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
51%
Strike defense
Not available
1.53
Takedown avg.
Not available
40%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
84%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.40
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Alexander GustafssonDamian Piwowarczyk
160016501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
7 (58%)
3 (17%)
Submission
4 (33%)
4 (22%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Gustafsson53%
Damian Piwowarczyk 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Gustafsson a 53% favorite over Damian Piwowarczyk in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Damian Piwowarczyk's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1673), separated by just 2 points.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Damian Piwowarczyk enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Damian Piwowarczyk 92%.

Alexander Gustafsson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.