Alexander Gustafsson vs Daniel Cormier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record22-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
79"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight251 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Daniel Cormier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1696
If they lose-10→ 1664
If they win+7→ 1830
If they lose-17→ 1806
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1777 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonDaniel Cormier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniel Cormier64%
Alexander Gustafsson 36%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Cormier a 64% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Daniel Cormier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1674, a 149-point edge.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Daniel Cormier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Daniel Cormier 68%.
Alexander Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier share 2 common opponents: Jon Jones and Anthony Johnson.
Alexander Gustafsson carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.