AdvertisementRemove ads — go Premium
Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Gustafsson vs Dmitriy Aryshev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record15-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
79"Reach-
205 lbsWeight187 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamSech Pro· 1665 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander GustafssonNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
Dmitriy AryshevNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
41%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
51%
Strike defense
Not available
1.53
Takedown avg.
Not available
40%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
84%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.40
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Alexander GustafssonDmitriy Aryshev
16501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
12 (80%)
3 (17%)
Submission
2 (13%)
4 (22%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Gustafsson54%
Dmitriy Aryshev 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Gustafsson a 54% favorite over Dmitriy Aryshev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dmitriy Aryshev's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1674), separated by just 3 points.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Dmitriy Aryshev 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.