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Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Gustafsson vs Fabrício Werdum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record24-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
79"Reach45,0"
205 lbsWeight246 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamWerdum Combat Team

What's at stake

Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander GustafssonNow 1671
If they win+22→ 1693
If they lose-10→ 1661
Fabrício WerdumNow 1802
If they win+8→ 1810
If they lose-16→ 1786

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
3.59
41%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.64
51%
Strike defense
56%
1.53
Takedown avg.
1.75
40%
Takedown accuracy
32%
84%
Takedown defense
32%
0.40
Submission avg.
1.16

Trajectory

Alexander GustafssonFabrício Werdum
17001750180020182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
6 (25%)
3 (17%)
Submission
12 (50%)
4 (22%)
Decision
6 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabrício Werdum55%
Alexander Gustafsson 45%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 55% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1671, a 131-point edge.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Fabrício Werdum 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.