Alexander Gustafsson vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record29-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamWCA Fight Team
What's at stake
Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1693
If they lose-13→ 1661
If they win+9→ 1757
If they lose-15→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1765 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jan Błachowicz66%
Alexander Gustafsson 34%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 66% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1674, a 74-point edge.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Alexander Gustafsson and Jan Błachowicz share 1 common opponent: Glover Teixeira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.