Alexander Gustafsson vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record29-12-2
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamWCA Fight Team· 1600 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1690
If they lose-13→ 1658
If they win+10→ 1743
If they lose-14→ 1719
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jan Błachowicz61%
Alexander Gustafsson 39%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 61% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1671, a 62-point edge.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Alexander Gustafsson and Jan Błachowicz share 1 common opponent: Glover Teixeira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.