Alexander Gustafsson vs Jon Jones
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record28-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
79"Reach84"
205 lbsWeight248 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Jon Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1700
If they lose-6→ 1668
If they win+5→ 1922
If they lose-19→ 1898
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1773 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonJon Jones
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Jones79%
Alexander Gustafsson 21%Elo baseline: 80%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Jones a 79% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).
Jon Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1917 to 1674, a 243-point edge.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jon Jones enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Jon Jones 64%.
Alexander Gustafsson and Jon Jones share 3 common opponents: Anthony Smith, Glover Teixeira and Daniel Cormier.
Jon Jones carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.