Alexander Gustafsson vs Laurynas Urbonavicius
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record15-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
79"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1678 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamVale Tudo MMA Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
If they win+16→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonLaurynas Urbonavicius
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Laurynas Urbonavicius56%
Alexander Gustafsson 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Laurynas Urbonavicius a 56% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1677), separated by just 3 points.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Laurynas Urbonavicius 73%.
Alexander Gustafsson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.