Alexander Gustafsson vs Maurício Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record27-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
79"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
Maurício Rua is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1691
If they lose-15→ 1659
If they win+11→ 1702
If they lose-13→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonMaurício Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Gustafsson60%
Maurício Rua 40%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Gustafsson a 60% favorite over Maurício Rua in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Maurício Rua's way (48%).
Maurício Rua holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1674, a 17-point edge.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.
Alexander Gustafsson and Maurício Rua share 1 common opponent: Anthony Smith.
Alexander Gustafsson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.