Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Gustafsson vs Nikita Krylov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Nikita Krylov
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Nikita Krylov

“The Miner”

31-12-0Light HeavyweightUFC

1691Good

Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record31-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
79"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight215 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamRaty Team

What's at stake

Nikita Krylov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander GustafssonNow 1674
If they win+17→ 1691
If they lose-15→ 1659
Nikita KrylovNow 1691
If they win+11→ 1702
If they lose-13→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1709 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
41%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
51%
Strike defense
48%
1.53
Takedown avg.
2.05
40%
Takedown accuracy
37%
84%
Takedown defense
53%
0.40
Submission avg.
1.23

Trajectory

Alexander GustafssonNikita Krylov
1700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
13 (42%)
3 (17%)
Submission
16 (52%)
4 (22%)
Decision
2 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Nikita Krylov84%
Alexander Gustafsson 16%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Nikita Krylov a 84% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Nikita Krylov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1674, a 17-point edge.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Nikita Krylov 94%.

Alexander Gustafsson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.