Alexander Gustafsson vs Phil Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record24-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Phil Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alexander Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1689
If they lose-14→ 1657
If they win+10→ 1733
If they lose-14→ 1709
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonPhil Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Gustafsson61%
Phil Davis 39%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Gustafsson a 61% favorite over Phil Davis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Phil Davis's way (43%).
Phil Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1671, a 52-point edge.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Phil Davis 46%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.