Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Gustafsson vs Rodolfo Bellato

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record13-3-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
79"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1678 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamKnockout Squad

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander GustafssonNow 1674
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
Rodolfo BellatoNow 1678
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
5.37
41%
Strike accuracy
60%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.86
51%
Strike defense
47%
1.53
Takedown avg.
1.38
40%
Takedown accuracy
35%
84%
Takedown defense
94%
0.40
Submission avg.
0.23

Trajectory

Alexander GustafssonRodolfo Bellato
160016501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
8 (62%)
3 (17%)
Submission
4 (31%)
4 (22%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Rodolfo Bellato70%
Alexander Gustafsson 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Rodolfo Bellato a 70% favorite over Alexander Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1678), separated by just 4 points.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rodolfo Bellato 92%.

Alexander Gustafsson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.