Alexander Gustafsson vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1678 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Gustafsson66%
Thiago Santos 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Gustafsson a 66% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1674), separated by just 0 points.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Alexander Gustafsson and Thiago Santos share 3 common opponents: Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and Jan Błachowicz.
Alexander Gustafsson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.