Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Gustafsson vs Thiago Silva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record21-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
79"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight223 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Alexander Gustafsson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Thiago Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander GustafssonNow 1674
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-19→ 1655
Thiago SilvaNow 1600
If they win+15→ 1615
If they lose-9→ 1591

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
3.92
41%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.55
51%
Strike defense
67%
1.53
Takedown avg.
1.03
40%
Takedown accuracy
47%
84%
Takedown defense
71%
0.40
Submission avg.
0.69

Trajectory

Alexander GustafssonThiago Silva
160016501700201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
15 (71%)
3 (17%)
Submission
1 (5%)
4 (22%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Gustafsson78%
Thiago Silva 22%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Gustafsson a 78% favorite over Thiago Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Alexander Gustafsson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1600, a 74-point edge.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Silva 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.