Alexander Gustafsson vs Thiago Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record21-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
79"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight223 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Alexander Gustafsson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1682
If they lose-21→ 1650
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-8→ 1552
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander GustafssonThiago Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Gustafsson80%
Thiago Silva 20%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Gustafsson a 80% favorite over Thiago Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Alexander Gustafsson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1560, a 111-point edge.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexander Gustafsson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Silva 76%.
Alexander Gustafsson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.