Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Matmuratov vs Lance Gibson Jr.

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
-Reach72"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
Raty Team· 1669 avg Elo · 13 ratedTeamGibson Kickboxing & Pankration

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander MatmuratovNow 1652
If they win+12→ 1664
If they lose-12→ 1640
Lance Gibson Jr.Now 1653
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-16→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2
TBD
Takedown accuracy
67%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander MatmuratovLance Gibson Jr.
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (32%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (30%)
12 (63%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Gibson Jr.52%
Alexander Matmuratov 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 52% favorite over Alexander Matmuratov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1653), separated by just 1 points.

Alexander Matmuratov finishes 37% of wins inside the distance, Lance Gibson Jr. 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.