Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Munoz vs Luis Pena

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luis Pena
us

Luis Pena

“Violent Bob Ross”

12-6-0WelterweightAFS

1634Solid

Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'3"
72.00ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight161 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamAmerican Top Team Sunrise

What's at stake

Luis Pena is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alexander Munoz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander MunozNow 1509
If they win+32→ 1541
If they lose-16→ 1493
Luis PenaNow 1634
If they win+10→ 1644
If they lose-22→ 1612

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.70
Sig. strikes / min
3.66
43%
Strike accuracy
47%
4.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.12
55%
Strike defense
51%
3
Takedown avg.
1.17
40%
Takedown accuracy
33%
100%
Takedown defense
48%
0
Submission avg.
1.17

Trajectory

Alexander MunozLuis Pena
150015501600165017002021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
1 (14%)
Submission
5 (42%)
4 (57%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Luis Pena60%
Alexander Munoz 40%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Luis Pena a 60% favorite over Alexander Munoz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Luis Pena holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1509, a 125-point edge.

Alexander Munoz finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Luis Pena 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.