Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Munoz vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72.00Reach67"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander MunozNow 1509
If they win+24→ 1533
If they lose-24→ 1485
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.70
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
43%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
3
Takedown avg.
TBD
40%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alexander MunozNathan Trepagnier
1500202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
1 (14%)
Submission
2 (40%)
4 (57%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier60%
Alexander Munoz 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 60% favorite over Alexander Munoz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Munoz's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1509 vs 1505), separated by just 4 points.

Alexander Munoz finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Alexander Munoz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.